Coalition crumble: Govt parties drop in latest poll - Labour, Greens, Te Pāti Māori edge ahead

The coalition parties have lost support in the latest political poll, with the left bloc able to form a government and NZ First out of Parliament.

National, Act and NZ First have collectively dropped five percentage points according to tonight’s 1News Verian poll.

It has National at 36 per cent, down two points from the last poll in February.

Act was on 7 per cent, down one point, and New Zealand First was on 4 per cent, down two, meaning it would be out of Parliament without an electorate seat.

Labour and the Green Party have jumped. Labour has hit 30 per cent, up two points. The Greens also increased by two to 14 per cent.

Te Pāti Māori was on 4 per cent, the same as the last poll.

Based on these numbers, National and Act could only muster 57 seats without NZ First. Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori would have 64, enough to form a government.

Eight per cent of respondents didn’t know or refused to say which party their support sat with.

The gap between Christopher Luxon and Chris Hipkins for preferred Prime Minister was also getting smaller.

Luxon had dropped two points to 23 per cent while Hipkins was up one point to 16 per cent.

Other leaders to register were new Greens co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick (6 per cent, up two), Act leader David Seymour (5 per cent, up one) and NZ First leader Winston Peters (4 per cent, down two).

The public’s view on the country’s economic outlook had also become more pessimistic. More respondents, 36 per cent, were optimistic, but 26 per cent were pessimistic - an increase of seven points on the last poll.

PM responds to poll results - ‘tough time’ for NZers

Luxon acknowledged it was a tough time for New Zealanders.

”Ultimately, they will judge us in three years’ time,” he told 1News.

Act’s David Seymour welcomed the result, despite the one-point drop. He said 7 per cent would have been a dream in previous years.

”If you’re trying to tell me that’s now a nightmare then I’m a pretty happy guy.”

NZ First’s Winston Peters didn’t respond, telling 1News he didn’t give a “rat’s derriere” about the poll.

Labour leader Chris Hipkins said his party’s supporters would be encouraged by the result but acknowledged there was more work to do.

He told 1News the result should be a “wake-up call” for the coalition regarding the direction it was taking the country.

First poll since Luxon’s surprise Cabinet reshuffle

It is the first 1News Verian poll since February and follows Luxon’s surprise reshuffle last week, which saw Melissa Lee demoted out of Cabinet and stripped of the media portfolio, while Penny Simmonds lost the Disability Issues portfolio.

It comes as the Government prepares for its first Budget on May 30, continuing to promise to offer tax cuts and cut government spending. It is facing what Finance Minister Nicola Willis said was a “challenging” time for the economy, which would push out the ability to return to surplus.

Thus far, more than 3000 job cuts have been flagged across government departments seeking to meet the Government’s requirements to find either 6.5 per cent or 7.5 per cent in savings.

Since the last 1News Verian poll in February, the Government has moved at a swift pace, completing its 100-day programme and setting out its next three-month plan, as well as releasing its longer term targets in areas such as health and education.

Luxon has travelled to South East Asia on his first major trip overseas.

That February poll, taken just after Waitangi Day, had National on 38 per cent, Labour on 28, the Green Party on 12, Act on 8, NZ First on 6 and Te Pāti Māori on 4 per cent.

In the preferred Prime Minister ratings in that February poll, Luxon was steady on 25 per cent while Hipkins had dropped dramatically from the 25 per cent ranking he had held prior to the election and was on 15 per cent.

In other polls since the election, the three governing parties have held fairly steady and continued to hold enough support to govern together.

However, there has been little sign of a honeymoon or boost in support since getting into office.

In an Ipsos poll in March, respondents rated the Government at 4.6 out of 10 for its performance.

In the latest Taxpayers Union Curia poll earlier this month, National was steady on 37 per cent, Labour was on 26 per cent, the Greens on 14.6 per cent, Act on 7.2 per cent, NZ First on 6.3 per cent and Te Pāti Māori on 4.6 per cent.