Japan v New Zealand preview: All Blacks to hammer Eddie Jones' Brave Blossoms and kick the year-end tour off in style

This year’s end-of-year internationals kicks off on Saturday when Japan host the All Blacks in what is expected to be a thrilling affair between two highly entertaining teams in Yokohama.

All Blacks head coach Scott Robertson will be determined for his troops to make a positive start to their northern tour which also includes encounters against more fancied opponents England, Ireland, France and Italy over the next few weeks.

Although the three-time world champions have dominated this fixture over the years, winning all five of the previous matches between the nations, Japan could be a potential banana skin for the men in black.

Robertson has opted to rest most of his first-choice players for this clash which means there will be several players who will use this match-up to impress him ahead of the European leg of their tour.

The last time these sides met – in Tokyo in 2022 – the Brave Blossoms gave a good account of themselves and pushed the All Blacks all the way before the visitors claimed a hard-fought 38-31 victory.

Jamie Joseph was Japan’s coach on that occasion and he has been replaced by Eddie Jones who is in his second spell in charge of the team. Jones’ latest stint started poorly as Japan lost all three of their mid-year internationals against England, Georgia and Italy.

However, they showed great improvement during their recent Pacific Nations Cup campaign where Jones introduced several younger and inexperienced players and they did well before eventually losing to Fiji in the final of that competition.

Jones has continued with his policy of fielding several less experienced players for this weekend’s encounter but although it’s not New Zealand’s strongest team, they can still expect a tough assignment.

Where the game will be won

With both sides expected to employ expansive game plans, fitness will be a key factor in this encounter and don’t be surprised if most of the action takes place in the wider channels. Both sides have several attacking threats in their ranks so this game should be played at a frenetic pace with plenty of end-to-end action and the ball receiving plenty of air. With humid conditions predicted for Yokohama on Saturday, the replacements bench should play a huge role in the outcome of this match, especially in the second half when the starting sides will be tiring.

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Last time they met

What they said

Despite being overwhelming underdogs, Brave Blossoms head coach Jones believes his team can present a tough challenge to their more illustrious opponents.

“We want to play like Japan from the first minute to the 80th minute of the game and not stop challenging New Zealand with our style of play,” he told reporters.

“I think whenever you play against New Zealand, the first thing you’ve got to do is be prepared to take them on.

“Like any team in the world, New Zealand are a team that if you go at them you can put them under pressure, and the way we play… we can really put some pressure on them with our collective speed and we intend to do that from the first minute.”

Meanwhile, All Blacks boss Robertson is wary of Jones and expects the seasoned coach to have some tricks up his sleeve this weekend.

“You have always got to be careful around Eddie Jones firstly,” he said when questioned on Jones’ impressive record against All Blacks teams.

“There have been a few big names other than the All Blacks, he’s got great innovation, he pushes his teams to the limit and gets the best out of people.

“He’s done that at some key moments in his career so we’re aware of Eddie.”

Players to watch

While the All Blacks might be better than Japan in most positions, the Brave Blossoms have some fine players in their ranks and none more so than talented back-rower Kazuki Himeno. The 30-year-old is no stranger to New Zealanders as he represented the Highlanders at Super Rugby level in 2021. Himeno currently plies his trade at Japan Rugby League One outfit Toyota Verblitz where the likes of All Blacks legends Aaron Smith and Beauden Barrett are his team-mates and he will be keen to put in a strong performance. A powerful strike runner, Himeno is also strong in the execution of his defensive duties and at the breakdown.

Meanwhile, versatile backline star Dylan Riley is a genuine attacking threat who has cemented himself in Japan’s run-on side after making his international debut in 2021. Equally at home on the wing or in midfield, the 27-year-old will feature at outside centre against the All Blacks. The Saitama Wild Knights player delivered some superb attacking performances for Japan during their Pacific Nations Cup campaign and will hope to build on those showings in this clash.

Another player who will be keen to do well is New Zealand-born second-rower Warner Dearns who will have fond memories of facing the All Blacks after scoring a well-taken try in the previous match between these nations in Tokyo two years ago. Although he is only 22 years old, the Toshiba Brave Lupus lock is one of the stars of the Brave Blossoms side as he is a valuable source of lineout possession, a solid ball carrier and an outstanding defender. All those facets of play will have to be at their best if he wants to help his side end their winless run against the All Blacks.

While the All Blacks’ matchday squad have plenty of attacking threats throughout their ranks, one player to keep an eye on is exciting scrum-half Cam Roigard, who will make his first Test appearance of 2024 after spending most of the year on the sidelines due to a serious knee injury sustained while in action for the Hurricanes in Super Rugby Pacific. Blessed with plenty of pace and a keen eye for the gap, Roigard is sure to test the Brave Blossoms’ defence around the fringes of the rucks. He is highly rated in New Zealand and earned his recall to the All Blacks side after just two appearances at provincial level for Counties Manukau. He scored three tries in those two matches and don’t be surprised if he crosses the whitewash in this Test as well.

After delivering some outstanding performances on the blindside flank for the All Blacks, Wallace Sititi gets a chance to shine at number eight which is his first-choice position. The 22-year-old was one of the Chiefs’ standout performers in that role during their run to the 2024 Super Rugby Pacific final with his ball-carrying giving the Hamilton-based outfit much-needed momentum throughout that campaign. He will be hoping to replicate that form against the Brave Blossoms on Saturday.

Another player to keep an eye on is exciting outside centre Billy Proctor, who hasn’t seen action at Test level since making a try-scoring debut for the All Blacks in their triumph over Fiji in July. That is of course because New Zealand are blessed with excellent number 13s like Rieko Ioane and Anton Lienert-Brown ahead of him in the queue. However, Proctor will be determined to make the most of this opportunity and he has fond memories of Japan as he scored four tries for the All Blacks XV against the Brave Blossoms in Kumamoto last year.

Main head-to-head

Although there are several exciting individual battles lined up in this fixture, the role of the two fly-halves will be crucial for their respective teams and both Japan’s Harumichi Tatekawa and New Zealand’s Damian McKenzie will be eager to make the most of the opportunities presented to them in the starting line-ups.

In the build-up to this encounter, Robertson singled the Brave Blossoms’ first choice number 10, Lee Seung-Sin, out for special praise but he misses out due to injury which places Tatekawa firmly in the spotlight for this fixture. Tatekawa is no stranger to the big occasion though as he started at fly-half for Japan in their Pacific Nations Cup semi-final win over Samoa and the loss in the final to Fiji with Seung-Sin shifted to full-back. The 34-year-old has plenty of experience and will also captain Japan which means there will be plenty of pressure on him and if he can handle that, his side should put in a solid performance.

Meanwhile, Robertson has recalled McKenzie to his starting line-up and crucial fly-half position. The 29-year-old was the All Blacks’ starting number 10 in eight of their nine Tests played so far this year but the jury is still out on whether he is the right man for the role in New Zealand. McKenzie was dropped to the bench for the All Blacks’ previous match – their final Rugby Championship match against Australia – with Barrett replacing him and delivering a fine performance. McKenzie gets another chance to show off his skills in this match and he will be keen to impress Robertson ahead of their next Test against England.

Prediction

Although this is an All Blacks matchday squad comprising of mostly second-string players, they will still have too much firepower for the Brave Blossoms – New Zealand to win by 35 points.

Previous results

2022: New Zealand won 38-31 in Tokyo2018: New Zealand won 69-31 in Tokyo2013: New Zealand won 54-6 in Tokyo2011: New Zealand won 83-7 in Hamilton1995: New Zealand won 145-17 in Bloemfontein

The teams

Japan: 15 Yoshitaka Yazaki, 14 Jone Naikabula, 13 Dylan Riley, 12 Nicholas McCurran, 11 Malo Tuitama, 10 Harumichi Tatekawa (c), 9 Shinobu Fujiwara, 8 Faulua Makisi, 7 Kazuki Himeno, 6 Amato Fakatava, 5 Warner Dearns, 4 Sanaila Waqa, 3 Shuhei Takeuchi, 2 Atsushi Sakate, 1 Takato OkabeReplacements: 16 Mamoru Harada, 17 Takayoshi Mohara, 18 Opeti Helu, 19 Epineri Uluiviti, 20 Kanji Shimokawa, 21 Taiki Koyama, 22 Tomoki Osada, 23 Takuro Matsunaga

New Zealand: 15 Stephen Perofeta, 14 Sevu Reece, 13 Billy Proctor, 12 Anton Lienert-Brown, 11 Mark Tele’a, 10 Damian McKenzie, 9 Cam Roigard, 8 Wallace Sititi, 7 Sam Cane, 6 Samipeni Finau, 5 Patrick Tuipulotu (c), 4 Sam Darry, 3 Pasilio Tosi, 2 Asafo Aumua, 1 Tamaiti WilliamsReplacements: 16 George Bell, 17 Ofa Tu’ungafasi, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Josh Lord, 20 Peter Lakai, 21 TJ Perenara, 22 David Havili, 23 Ruben Love

Date: Saturday, October 26Venue: Nissan Stadium, YokohamaKick-off: 14:40 local (06:50 BST, 05:50 GMT)Referee: Jordan Way (RA)Assistant Referees: Nic Berry (RA), Reuben Keane (RA)TMO: Damon Murphy (RA)

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