UFC Edmonton predictions

Brandon Moreno and Rose Namajunas both know what it’s like to be UFC champion. They’ve done it twice. Is a third run to gold too tall of a climb?

That’s the question both fighters face Saturday as they enter pivotal matchups. Moreno meets Amir Albazi in the UFC Edmonton flyweight main event, with the hopes of holding onto his spot in the division he has reigned over on two occasions. “The Assassin Baby” doesn’t appear to have lost a step despite a pair of red marks on his ledger, as he went five rounds with Brandon Royval and Alexandre Pantoja only to fall just short on the scorecards.

Having lost to Pantoja three times now, Moreno’s best path back to a title shot is to defeat Albazi and hope that Pantoja drops the belt to Kai Asakura at UFC 310. The task at hand is anything but easy.

Albazi is yet to lose in five UFC appearances, though his most recent fight against Kai Kara-France generated some scoring controversy. That was over 500 days ago as Albazi has been sidelined with a litany of health issues. He now has a chance to knock off a former champion and all but sign his name on the dotted line to face the UFC 310 winner.

The co-main event tells a similar story. At 115 pounds, Namajunas emerged as a star, winning the UFC title twice and delivering some of the most incredible finishes in the division’s history. After a disappointing rematch with Carla Esparza, Namajunas decided to move up in weight, and following a loss to Manon Fiorot, she picked up back-to-back wins to put together her first win streak since 2021.

As much as Namajunas has to prove, Blanchfield is just as motivated, if not more. The 25-year-old blue-chipper dominated her first six UFC opponents before also being foiled by Fiorot. That put a damper on the future champion talks that swirled around her, though she has plenty of time to rebuild that buzz and that mission starts Saturday against a future UFC Hall of Famer.

In other main card action, Canadian representatives Caio Machado, Jasmine Jasudavicius, Marc-Andre Barriault, and Mike Malott look to turn around the country’s recent MMA fortunes.

(Note: A previously scheduled main card bout between Derrick Lewis and Jhonata Diniz has been cancelled due to Lewis being forced to withdraw due to a medical issue. A flyweight bout between Jasudavicius and Ariane da Silva has been elevated to the main card.)

What: UFC Edmonton

Where: Rogers Place in Edmonton, Canada

When: Saturday, Nov. 2. The seven-fight preliminary card begins at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by a six-fight main card at 8 p.m. ET also on ESPN+.

(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in MMA Fighting’s Global Rankings and Pound-for-Pound Rankings)

Brandon Moreno (4) vs. Amir Albazi (6)

I scored Brandon Moreno’s past two fights in his favor, so it should come as no surprise that I’m picking him to get off the schneid here. No disrespect to Amir Albazi, who is exactly the kind of strong, well-rounded fighter that will be a factor at 125 for years to come, but Moreno is still on that champion level in my eyes.

This is a tale of two layoffs as well, with Moreno taking slightly longer than usual to return to action and Albazi fighting for the first time in 17 months. While Moreno should be refreshed by taking a mental step back, Albazi has been going through it in his time off having to deal with neck and heart issues. Yikes!

Albazi getting a win would be inspirational, but that’s a lot of ill to overcome on top of figuring out how to get past the refreshed two-time UFC champion standing across from him. If he puts the pressure on Moreno early, that could be key to pulling off this upset and stepping right to the front of the title picture.

Is it terrible to predict another split decision is in the cards for Moreno and Albazi? That’s how tight the race is at the top of this division and how skilled both of these fighters are. If Edmonton does become Splitty City for the main event, then the dice have to roll Moreno’s way sometime. He takes this on points.

Pick: Moreno

Erin Blanchfield (4, P4P-8) vs. Rose Namajunas (9, P4P-10)

One reason I was confident in Rose Namajunas beating Tracy Cortez was the enormous skill and experience gap between them, plus the fact that Cortez didn’t have a considerable size and strength advantage over Namajunas. When Erin Blanchfield steps into the cage with “Thug Rose,” fans will be surprised just how physically imposing Blanchfield is in comparison.

Namajunas’ best bet to win this is the same strategy she’s used to win both her fights at 125 pounds: Stick and move. The former strawweight champion even had moments against Manon Fiorot employing this strategy and when you consider this is a five-round fight, it’s easy to imagine Namajunas outlasting Blanchfield and taking over in the final 10 minutes.

It’s also not difficult to imagine Blanchfield getting her hands on Namajunas early and just hossing her around the octagon. Even against sometimes strawweight Amanda Ribas, Namajunas had trouble stopping takedowns. What’s she going to do to prevent Blanchfield from taking her for a ride?

Namajunas has been in there with the best, so I get that counting her out is foolish, but Blanchfield has all the tools to be an elite fighter someday (if she isn’t already). I think she corrects course with a finish of Namajunas, wearing her down before putting an exclamation point on her performance in the second or third round.

Pick: Blanchfield

Caio Machado vs. Brendson Ribeiro

Now is as good a time as any to point out that there are nine Canadians competing on this card, including Vancouver-based Brazilian Caio Machado. When it comes time for Machado to make the walk, there’s a legitimate chance his countrymen could have batted .500 to that point, so it will fall in him to make it a winning night.

As the highest billed Canadian on the card, Machado should soak in those vibes and enjoy a much-needed move to 205 pounds. Machado’s first two UFC fights were against heavyweights flirting with the upper poundage limit of the division, so it made sense to change weight classes.

Strategically speaking, I’d like to see Machado utilize his grappling, which was a weakness of Brendson Ribeiro’s in his most recent fight. You can tell Machado loves to show off his striking, but Riberio has plenty of spark in those gloves and if Machado wants to avoid a hometown letdown, he should consider mixing the martial arts.

This could be a mucky fight from start to finish, so let’s hope it doesn’t drag on too long. Machado, feel free to club and then sub to end this one early.

Pick: Machado

Marc-Andre Barriault vs. Dustin Stoltzfus

With respect to my fellow Canadian, I’ve seen Marc-Andre Barriault slip on one too many banana peels to pick him with any confidence.

Barriault is a good fighter, we can say that in fairness, but somehow his combination of physical gifts and sharp coaching hasn’t led to consistent results. He has a favorable matchup here in Stoltzfus, a solid grappler who rarely goes to the cards, for better or worse.

This should be a showcase for Barriault, right? I just see too many ways for him to catch a weird loss though. Stoltzfus’ grappling proves to be too much. Stoltzfus wins a tight decision after a sloppy striking battle. Barriault slips on a Rogers ad on the mat and bumps his head. I don’t know. It’s a Barriault fight.

Stoltzfus by submission.

Pick: Stoltzfus.

Mike Malott vs. Trevin Giles

Now this is a squash match booking I can get behind.

Mike Malott shouldn’t be judged too harshly for his loss to Neil Magny, though it exposed glaring holes in his ability to finish a fight strong. He was handling Magny for almost three rounds before a total collapse led to Magny finishing him with just 15 seconds remaining in the contest. There’s no shame in losing to Magny, a fighter with far more high-level experience than Malott, but it did present a hypothetical ceiling for the Canadian welterweight.

Don’t overthink this one, though. Malott never goes the distance and all six of Giles’ UFC losses are by knockout or submission. He’s a hard-working fighter with some legit wins on his résumé (remember when he beat Roman Dolidze?), but his defensive shortcomings will rear their head at the worst time on Saturday.

It’s a 50-50 proposition how Malott ends this, so I’ll go with him utilizing his striking to score an impressive finish.

Pick: Malott

Preliminaries

Pedro Munhoz def. Aiemann Zahabi

Ariane da Silva def. Jasmine Jasudavicius

Victor Henry def. Charles Jourdain

Jack Shore def. Youssef Zalal

Alexandr Romanov def. Rodrigo Nascimento

Serhiy Sidey def. Garrett Armfield

Cody Gibson def. Chad Anheliger

Jamey-Lyn Horth def. Ivana Petrovic